For those of you who are still interested in the talk about town on health reform, I attended a Congressional Quarterly briefing earlier this week that included many different experts (Hill staffers, lobbyists, health plan representatives, providers, advocates and pollsters) opining on the topic. Much of the substance you all have heard before but it did give me a new perspective on some key questions:
What if health reform does not happen?
Many of the panelists agreed that if the current health reform package does not pass, there is no plan B. The focus of Congress will turn to jobs and those on the panels thought there would not be the political will to even attempt “health reform light.” As I have said in past blogs, many of the speakers felt that doing nothing does not fix the problem. Costs will continue to rise, employers will be less able to afford health insurance for their workers, the number of uninsured will continue to increase, uncompensated health care costs will grow and the incentives in the system that encourage providing more care not better care will remain.
Will the current health reform package (Senate bill with possible changes suggested by the President) bend the cost curve?
Although presenters acknowledged key questions in this area: are the Medicare cuts sustainable?; will the demonstrations and pilots in the legislation bear fruit?; and what will be the impact of the new excise tax on certain insurance policies? Some of the speakers believed that the new structure included in the current legislation would provide a platform for further cost controls. If left alone, health care costs will crowd out every other national priority. It was predicted that there will not be one “crisis” moment for the health care system, but gradual erosion overtime.
Why not take an incremental approach?
Many of the speakers thought that health care is so interconnected, which makes it very hard to take one piece in isolation. One piece of reform will not work without the other pieces. For example, the insurance reforms do not work without the mandate that all Americans have health insurance coverage.
All agreed that the next few weeks will determine if health reform will pass or not.
Although children were not a focus of the meeting, it was interesting to hear about the possible fate of health reform because it most certainly will impact children and their providers. Stay tuned…
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